One of my SHTF senarios, infact the one that I feel is most probable is a serious economic decline. This is something that we are currently in the process of going through, and analysts where it will end.

According to a New York Times Article:

On Friday, the Commerce Department’s consumer spending figures supported TrimTabs’ view of a consumer slowdown. It said consumer purchases rose 0.4 percent in January, barely above the inflation rate of 0.3 percent. The data seemed to show that the only money being spent was going to cover increased living expenses. And if you’ve bought groceries lately, these costs also seem far higher than the government posits.

Another worrisome sign is that on “January 14, 2008 the FDIC web site began posting the rules for reimbursing depositors in the event of a bank failure.” (article here) Are they simply updating their policies, or are they aware of something that is coming, and don’t want to panic the masses?

The combination of the signs that one can find everywhere, like in the housing market, all point towards an extended downturn in my humble estimation. I’d much rather look at this with a glass half full perspective, but I’m a realist, and can’t continue to fool myself.

Pull those seatbelts tight, I think we are in for a ride!